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https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-projects-100k-240k-221228860.html

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned Americans to brace for a “rough two-week period” ahead as the White House released new projections that there could be 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic even if current social distancing guidelines are maintained.
Public health officials stressed that the number could be less if people change their behavior.
“We really believe we can do a lot better than that,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force. That would require all Americans to take seriously their role in preventing the spread of disease, she said.
Trump called American efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus “a matter of life and death” and urged the public to heed his administration’s guidelines. He predicted the country would soon see a “light at the end of the tunnel” in the pandemic that has killed more than 3,500 Americans and infected 170,000 more.
"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead,” Trump said. “We're going to go through a very tough two weeks."
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said the numbers are “sobering” and called on Americans to “step on the accelerator” with their collective mitigation efforts.
“We are continue to see things go up,” Fauci said. “We cannot be discouraged by that because the mitigation is actually working and will work."
Birx said pandemic forecasts initially predicted 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. But that was a worst-case scenario, without efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus through social distancing.
Birx said states that have not yet seen a spike in cases as New York has could take action to flatten the curve of rising hospitalizations and deaths.
As for the projection of 100,000-240,000 deaths, Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said: “We don’t accept that number, that that's what it's going to be. ... We want to do much better than that.”
The comments came after Trump announced Sunday that he was extending to April 30 the social distancing guidelines that urged Americans to cease social gatherings, work from home, suspend onsite learning at schools and more in a nationwide effort to stem the spread of the virus.
It was an abrupt reversal for Trump, who spent much of last week targeting April 12 as the day he wanted to see Americans “pack the pews” for Easter Sunday services.
Trump called the data “very sobering” saying it was his understanding that the 100,000 deaths was a minimum that would be difficult to avoid. He also sought to rewrite his past minimization of the outbreak, saying he rejected those who compared the new coronavirus to the flu — when in fact he repeatedly did so publicly.
“This could be helluva bad two weeks,'” Trump said.
Many states and local governments already have stiffer controls in place on mobility and gatherings.
Birx said the experiences of Washington state and California give her hope that other states can keep the coronavirus under control through social distancing. That’s because they moved quickly to contain the early clusters of coronavirus by closing schools, urging people to work from home, banning large gatherings and taking other measures now familiar to most Americans, she noted.
“I am reassured by looking at the Seattle line,” she added. “California and Washington state reacted very early to this.”
Trump spoke after another troubling day for the stock market, which has been in a free fall as the cononavirus ground the economy to a near-halt and left millions unemployed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 400 points, or roughly 1.9%, to seal the worst first-quarter finish of its 135-year history.
 

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" President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned Americans to brace for a “rough two-week period” ahead as the White House released new projections that there could be 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus.........."

"As for the projection of 100,000-240,000 deaths, Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said: “We don’t accept that number, that that's what it's going to be........."


From the same article....... take yer pick!
 

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IF the death rate is the average 1.5%, then 330,000,000 @ 1.5% equals 4,950,000; so if we keep it to 100 or 200K, we have performed a miracle
 
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This is a problem.
But in perspective it is better that a lot of statistics we deal with on a daily basis.
Deaths attributed to the flu, cancer, diabetes, drug abuse.
We will get through this.
I was picking up supplies at an office supply store and the woman on line was lamenting that this is the worse thing Americans have been through.
My comment was for her to talk to a war veteran, they would set here straight.
 

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Until there is extensive testing for both active and antibody percentages, anything they say is a guess.

Let's look at the Diamond Princess. Contained population of 3,711 people, many of them in the "danger zone" age group.
Put in quarantine at sea on Feb. 3. By February 20th, most of the 3,711 had been tested.
634--17%, tested positive. 328----52% of those infected, were asymptomatic.
Of all infected, the overall fatality rate was .91%. Guessing .5% would be a bit closer in the total US population, the people
on the ship were typically older than the average.

So---330 million, 17% get it. 56 million cases---with and without symptoms.
.5% of 56 million---280,000. Trump is in the ballpark. If it's actually .91% he is way low.
 

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Has anyone thought that the high number thrown out there could be done for other reasons? One, to scare people and keep them home or two if the numbers come in much lower when this is over it will make him look good.
 
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IF the death rate is the average 1.5%, then 330,000,000 @ 1.5% equals 4,950,000; so if we keep it to 100 or 200K, we have performed a miracle
I agree. The "regular" flu results in about 16,000 to 41,000 deaths in the US each year. And those are barely noticed by the news media, depending on whether a Democrat or Republican is president.
 

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" President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned Americans to brace for a “rough two-week period” ahead as the White House released new projections that there could be 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus.........."

"As for the projection of 100,000-240,000 deaths, Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said: “We don’t accept that number, that that's what it's going to be........."


From the same article....... take yer pick!

Guys, Stop the panic !

I saw that Presidential update and that's NOT what was said nor what they were trying to communicate.
That graph showing those numbers was a model of the worst case if nothing was done.
Liberal is falsely reporting on it - Don't bite or drink this cool aid.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Has anyone thought that the high number thrown out there could be done for other reasons? One, to scare people and keep them home or two if the numbers come in much lower when this is over it will make him look good.
or typical sensationalism like Hurricane Katrina with tens of thousand projected immediate deaths......the end results were far less dire. And a lot of katrina deaths where katrina was a contributing factor to a death and not the direct cause.....
 

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or typical sensationalism like Hurricane Katrina with tens of thousand projected immediate deaths......the end results were far less dire. And a lot of katrina deaths where katrina was a contributing factor to a death and not the direct cause.....
I read or heard something the other day but don't know if it's true. Can't remember from where though. Anyway they are supposedly testing people who die from other causes like heart attack, stroke etc and if they are positive they are putting covid-19 as the cause. Again i don't know if it's true but i could certainly believe it.
 

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I was looking at there spin.
Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.

The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but that they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/experts-trumps-advisers-doubt-white-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/

What is that supposed even mean?
Then they went on to build a story.

Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.

 
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