National Gun Forum banner

1 - 15 of 15 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,049 Posts
Discussion Starter #1

115757

As the nation slowly emerges from the social-distancing economic shut-down enacted to slow the spread of COVID-19, it would be wise to examine how and why our governors and federal agencies made the decisions they made that resulted in over 36 million people losing their jobs and untold cases of stress, anxiety, depression, and death.

Never before in modern history has a civilization embarked upon a wide-spread quarantine of healthy individuals to protect against the spread of disease. Never.
So, how did we come to make such a stunning and possibly calamitous decision?
Would you believe it all started with a 15-year-old's science project?
Laura Glass of Albequerque, NM was participating in the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair in 2006. At the time, the Albuquerque Journal reported on her project.
Glass's work involved the creation of a virtual town of 10,000 people— a computerized world where she could experiment on the spread of a disease such as the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed an estimated 50 million to 100 million people worldwide.
...
The simple way to halt the spread of the disease is to limit the number of contacts people have. Quarantining people is hard. "If you went out and told everyone in your community to stay home, there's a large percentage that wouldn't do that," she said.
Glass found that a simpler step— closing the schools— had an impressive effect.
Instead of 5,000 people getting sick, the number was reduced to 500.
Dr. Drew Pinsky, who has worked in the past with Dr. Anthony Fauci and has extensive knowledge of infectious diseases, says the science project then got elevated to national prominence.
"Her father, a computer modeler, put together a program that modeled this on a larger scale," Pinsky says. "He and she then published a paper in 2006 that the Bush Administration adopted as policy. And if you read the paper, they don't really recommend lockdown, they recommend regional sorts of closures but nothing like lockdown."
Yet, here we are, in the midst of the first quarantine of healthy people in human history.
As tens of millions are suffering without jobs or income and are trying to cope with the economic stress of a collapsing economy, The New York Times has been busy writing puff pieces praising the policy and its high school genesis.
Dr. Glass’s daughter Laura, then 14, had done a class project in which she built a model of social networks at her Albuquerque high school, and when Dr. Glass looked at it, he was intrigued.
Students are so closely tied together — in social networks and on school buses and in classrooms — that they were a near-perfect vehicle for a contagious disease to spread.
Dr. Glass piggybacked on his daughter’s work to explore with her what effect breaking up these networks would have on knocking down the disease.
The outcome of their research was startling. By closing the schools in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, only 500 people got sick. If they remained open, half of the population would be infected.
However, as it pertains to COVID-19, the science project has a couple of somewhat flawed premises. The first has to do with the virus's effect on children as compared to influenza.
"In influenza, which is a disease transmitted by children and really hurts children, unlike COVID, you could significantly reduce community outbreaks by closing schools," Pinsky said in describing Glass's science project. However, we don't have a clear scientific understanding of how or whether COVID-19 spreads among school-aged children.
Two weeks ago, Daniel Koch, the Swiss chief of infectious diseases (think Fauci with a Swiss army knife), said a study of children under ten had determined that kids "are not infected and do not transmit the virus." "They just don't have the receptors to catch the disease," he said. On the strength of other studies in Europe, Denmark and Germany have re-opened their schools.
Meanwhile, what we do know about COVID-19 actually argues against the science project approach we have taken.

"Never before in human history was it contemplated that we would lock down healthy people. Quarantine is what you do to sick people," Pinsky says. "The only time in human history that there had been a lockdown of healthy people was in medieval ages, in medieval times where it worked against them. Because transmission accelerated indoors both with the plague and with tuberculosis and the other outbreaks."
Does "the science" support continuing the lockdowns and social distancing? Did it ever support these devastating policies?
No, Pinsky says, emphatically.
"They keep saying this is science, this is science... no, no, this is a model," he said. "This is a point of view, and it needs modification, and there is yet no actual science that says masks and distancing is inferior to a lockdown."
Maybe we need a teenager to come up with a better idea for next year's science fair since this year's was canceled.
 

·
Barney
Joined
·
101 Posts
I read this article a few weeks ago. Pretty good, except it has been the common practice to stem the spread of pandemic disease since the bubonic plague.
 

·
Registered
Navy Vet
Joined
·
2,865 Posts
Since this disease is much deadlier and more contagious than the yearly flu, even though many people die from the flu annually, I’ll still take my chances with the practices that were put into place to stop the spread of COVID-19. Then again, I’m 75. It’s not over yet. And...........Fall is only five months away. A vaccine. My stock portfolio took a hit, so be it. Our governor has proposed raising the minimum wage in Pa. Recovery is on the way, ya think?
My mother is 105, I’m trying to match her.
And I do feel very sorry for those who have lost their livelihood. Really.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
515 Posts
Covid is only deadly to a small segment of our society. The Flu is deadly to every segment. The evidence was there before it got to this country that the old and sick needed to quarantine, not everyone.
For the few to willingly sacrifice for the betterment of the many is a noble act. To force millions to sacrifice for their lives and futures for the betterment of the few is insanity.
Especially on the advice of a high school kid and a wild guess from a computer.
Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 

·
"You talkin to me?"
Joined
·
4,243 Posts
we have 16 yr olds telling us how to fix the environment, how to solve mass shootings and other essential matters and look where that's gotten us... why not this as well
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
515 Posts
I guess then China, South Korea, Italy were wrong. I agree about the computer.
Wrong how?
Most of the data I was seeing from places before Covid got to the U.S. was that the old or those with comorbidities were most at risk. And most of the deaths. The Flu is indiscriminate and kills young and old as well as those that are otherwise healthy.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Navy Vet
Joined
·
2,865 Posts
That’s why they shut the countries down. Everyone, young and old. And if this thing raises its ugly head in the Fall or Winter, they will do it again. Civil unrest, maybe. You just can‘t give the young (which is what age) a free pass. Trump was right and so were all the governors in every state. And the young are not going to stay away from the old. They spread it and no, will not stay away from their older relatives. There are Mexicans here, just and example. They were even told by one of their own to knock off the partying and running in and out of each other’s houses. They didn’t care, they spread it real good in this zip code. Made this county one of the most infected in South Central Pennsylvania. Young and old. The doctors on Trump and Pence‘s team were right about the social distancing, and I hope they are wrong but we could very well see this all over again. I shall say no more on this.
 

·
Barney
Joined
·
101 Posts
Covid is only deadly to a small segment of our society. The Flu is deadly to every segment. The evidence was there before it got to this country that the old and sick needed to quarantine, not everyone.
For the few to willingly sacrifice for the betterment of the many is a noble act. To force millions to sacrifice for their lives and futures for the betterment of the few is insanity.
Especially on the advice of a high school kid and a wild guess from a computer.
Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
I don't think that it is deadly to just a small segment of our society. Just watching the news I've seen deaths across the board. Maybe old feeble people are at greater risk, that doesn't mean other people are not dying of it in significant numbers.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,049 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
Just like the flu, car accidents, and other major causes of death in this country, none of which we shut the country down for.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
515 Posts
I don't think that it is deadly to just a small segment of our society. Just watching the news I've seen deaths across the board. Maybe old feeble people are at greater risk, that doesn't mean other people are not dying of it in significant numbers.
Significant numbers?
In most places, 2/3 of the deaths or more are over 60yrs old. Of the deaths under 60yrs old, 75% had other health problems besides Covid that made them susceptible to to Covid. The county I live in has had more murders this year than Covid deaths. And all of them were in LTC facilities.
This is what peoples lives have been ruined for????? Total bull?
I'm 63, I have 5 kids. I'm a DAD. That's what I do. It's my job to see that my kids are safe and have a better life than me and to look out and care for them. Not them for me.
What has been done did not help them or any other in the long run.
It was nothing more than a failed experiment to show that Man could control life and death that devolved into a power play by politicians.
Just like the flu, car accidents, and other major causes of death in this country, none of which we shut the country down for.
Exactly. All we did is trade death by one cause for death by another.
Kind of like in Men in Black 3.
Where there is death, there will always be death.
Death is one of the few constants in life.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 
1 - 15 of 15 Posts
Top