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Bull.
Every death certificate is filed with the appropriate county weekly if not daily. How or why they died is totally irrelevant. Total number of death certificates filed, period. I promise you they have that info. They use it to track spikes for several reasons as well as it is needed for legal reasons.
To think that they can't look up on a database with the computers and programs we have today and see the total number filed is just downright ludicrous.


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Grand Imperial Poobah
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“How or why they died is irrelevant.”
I think it is very relevant.
I am not saying anyone's death is irrelevant. Or how they die.
My kids keep telling me to take precautions because I am one of those most at risk. Over 60, bad lungs and a bad heart. But as long as people are dieing from things that have nothing to do with the symptoms of covid but are being counted as it's victim, we will never know just how dangerous the virus really is.
If they take the total deaths for this period, say for the counties NYC is in.
Average number of deaths for this period for the last 5 years.
The total number of deaths so far this year. Adjust for population increase.
Subtract the number of covid listed deaths.
How do they compare. Is this year higher or lower than previous?
Higher or somewhat equal to prvious years= problem. The higher than previous the worse the problem.
Lower, and the more significantly lower the less the problem.
They know the number of death certificates filed with the respective counties or they would not have numbers, they would have estimates. If they had the counties narrow down the number to just the comorbidity causes, the formula works even better.
Anyone that thinks counties don't list the number of certificates for a given period as well as cause of death in a database, where do you think the CDC gets it? For the country, for all causes and demographics, yup it takes a while. 5-10 counties in close proximity for just specific causes, not so much.
They have or can get it. If they don't have it it's because they don't want it.
If they already have it, they are not saying so.
Why?

I have lost a friend already this year to an unrelated illness. To anyone else that has or does, covid related or not, you have my condolences.
If it seems like I don't care, you're wrong.
If I didn't care I wouldn't ask the question. Without this answer, both you and I have absolutely no clue as to the REAL risk to ourselves or those we care about. Is the risk of ruining the economy and possibly their lives worth the risk?
If I am a little wordy, and yes I have been accused of being, please forgive me. I have 3 sons, 2 daughters and a very sweet granddaughter. The consequences of ALL of this concerns me greatly. Not for me, I've lived my life. I want them to be able to have one. Even my collection is for them, not me. I'm too decrepit. I'll be the guy in the middle of the street, if I live that long, to give them a chance.
I'm a Dad, that's my job.

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Bull.
Every death certificate is filed with the appropriate county weekly if not daily. How or why they died is totally irrelevant. Total number of death certificates filed, period. I promise you they have that info. They use it to track spikes for several reasons as well as it is needed for legal reasons.
To think that they can't look up on a database with the computers and programs we have today and see the total number filed is just downright ludicrous.


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Take it up with the C.D.C.
 

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No more excuses?
I built computers and installed software, including server and database software, back around the mid 1990s. There was software back then that would do it. I've only seen a fraction of what the government has. That kind of info is child's play with what they have now.
Anyone involved with computers knows that. They have tablets and Apps that are more powerful than the computers we had then. Shoot, even my phone is.
The only thing that takes a year or ore is typing all those reports and making all the pretty graphs.
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No more excuses?
I built computers and installed software, including server and database software, back around the mid 1990s. There was software back then that would do it. I've only seen a fraction of what the government has. That kind of info is child's play with what they have now.
Anyone involved with computers knows that. They have tablets and Apps that are more powerful than the computers we had then. Shoot, even my phone is.
The only thing that takes a year or ore is typing all those reports and making all the pretty graphs.
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Let me tell you something sparky, I spent 10 of the last 13 years as the cyber security architect and security incident management for more than 65 government agencies across the country. About a third of those were major public health agencies. I didn’t build computers and install software, I had the keys to the kingdom, up to and including the software that grants access to authorized individuals into quarantine areas. My job was not only to know what data was stored where but how it moves through the networks. I have first hand knowledge of how inefficient data travels and the complexity of moving one data source to another. You need to let go of the romantic notion that you know what you are talking about because you don’t. Just because something seems reasonable to assume it should work a certain way doesn’t mean it does. You don’t have just one source of information, it comes from thousands of sources. Let it go.
 

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Jesus Saves
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Most ventilator associated pneumonia is caused by bacteria already in the mouth and stomach pooling up in the lungs.
I'll disagree with you on this. It is due to poor hygiene. Anyone on a vent should NEVER EVER have oral or gastric fluid go into the lung. The only way that will happen is with poor hygiene, poor technique. Hospital aquired pneumonias (on vent or not) are not caused in the manner you expressed.

You stick with cyber security and I'll stick with the respiratory stuff....maybe we'll both learn something.
 

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So far, 10,000 US deaths from this virus. Only 21,000 to go to be even with the yearly deaths in the US from the elderly falling down steps.
 

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The same place that botched the previous model is back?
>The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.
>
the IHME model was developed to “provide hospitals, health-care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan.” The model’s latest update includes several important changes related to that planning.
Many fewer hospital beds will be needed at peak than previously anticipated, according to the new projections.
>
One thing that didn’t change between the April 2 and April 5 models is the projected date of the outbreak’s peak.
The model still predicts an April 16 apex for the daily COVID-19 death rate. Hospital use is expected to peak on April 15.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths/ar-BB12edu1?ocid=spartanntp
 

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I'll disagree with you on this. It is due to poor hygiene. Anyone on a vent should NEVER EVER have oral or gastric fluid go into the lung. The only way that will happen is with poor hygiene, poor technique. Hospital aquired pneumonias (on vent or not) are not caused in the manner you expressed.

You stick with cyber security and I'll stick with the respiratory stuff....maybe we'll both learn something.
I do not doubt that secondary transmission occurs but these articles do agree with me.

Abstract
Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a major healthcare-associated complication with considerable attributable morbidity, mortality and cost. Inherent design flaws in the standard high-volume low-pressure cuffed tracheal tubes form a major part of the pathogenic mechanism causing VAP. The formation of folds in the inflated cuff leads to microaspiration of pooled oropharyngeal secretions into the trachea, and biofilm formation on the inner surface of the tracheal tube helps to maintain bacterial colonization of the lower airways. Improved design of tracheal tubes with new cuff material and shape have reduced the size and number of these folds, which together with the addition of suction ports above the cuff to drain pooled subglottic secretions leads to reduced aspiration of oropharyngeal secretions. Furthermore, coating tracheal tubes with antibacterial agents reduces biofilm formation and the incidence of VAP. In this Viewpoint article we explore the published data supporting the new tracheal tubes and their potential contribution to VAP prevention strategies. We also propose that it may now be against good medical practice to continue to use a 'standard cuffed tube' given what is already known, and the weight of evidence supporting the use of newer tube designs.

Full article text: https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/cc10352

That article is also referenced here published in 2016:

https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/cc13775#ref-CR11

PathogenesisThe complex interplay between the endotracheal tube, presence of risk factors, virulence of the invading bacteria and host immunity largely determine the development of VAP. The presence of an endotracheal tube is by far the most important risk factor, resulting in a violation of natural defense mechanisms (the cough reflex of glottis and larynx) against micro aspiration around the cuff of the tube [4], [11]. Infectious bacteria obtain direct access to the lower respiratory tract via: (1) micro aspiration, which can occur during intubation itself; (2) development of a biofilm laden with bacteria (typically Gram-negative bacteria and fungal species) within the endotracheal tube; (3) pooling and trickling of secretions around the cuff; and (4) impairment of mucociliary clearance of secretions with gravity dependence of mucus flow within the airways [1113]. Pathogenic material can also collect in surrounding anatomic structures, such as the stomach, sinuses, nasopharynx and oropharynx, with replacement of normal flora by more virulent strains [11], [12], [14]. This bacterium-enriched material is also constantly thrust forward by the positive pressure exerted by the ventilator. Whereas reintubation following extubation increases VAP rates, the use of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation has been associated with significantly lower VAP rates [4]. Host factors such as the severity of underlying disease, previous surgery and antibiotic exposure have all been implicated as risk factors for development of VAP [1].
 

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Let me tell you something sparky, I spent 10 of the last 13 years as the cyber security architect and security incident management for more than 65 government agencies across the country. About a third of those were major public health agencies. I didn’t build computers and install software, I had the keys to the kingdom, up to and including the software that grants access to authorized individuals into quarantine areas. My job was not only to know what data was stored where but how it moves through the networks. I have first hand knowledge of how inefficient data travels and the complexity of moving one data source to another. You need to let go of the romantic notion that you know what you are talking about because you don’t. Just because something seems reasonable to assume it should work a certain way doesn’t mean it does. You don’t have just one source of information, it comes from thousands of sources. Let it go.
Well there you have it......
Another government shill telling us how stupid we are.
Anyone running a home network knows how EASY it is to get info from one computer to another. They don't need info from tens of thousands, just off a few from each of a few hot spots, then info they already have and then do some basic math.
The government is really good at taking something really simple and making it so complicated that nobody knows what is going on. They think it makes them look smarter. If they have the smartest people, why do they hire outside contractors to figure out their problems????
You were government and you are smarter than anyone and we should all believe without question because you say so? Nope, don't think so.
And being condescending by calling me "sparky",,,that's what people do when they really don't know squat but want to look smarter and better than someone else. You have no clue about my education but you are smarter??? Please.
I wrote programs starting with Basic in the 1980s. My first real one, my 12yr old son showed me how to turn on. I got educated on them and started building them. Then started teaching my kids. My oldest is now in IT and far better than I ever was. And trust me, he can show you just how easy it is to get info off another computer.
As far as government IT being smart, I had programs they had nothing to trade for that would not get them prison time. And I just did it all for fun.
And you want everyone to believe they can't call or contact a county office and find out how many deaths were recorded in the last week?????
How do you think the newspapers get that information each week????????
Jesus H Christ, this is not rocket science. It's grade school math.


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And as far as being educated??? The more educated I get and the more I learn, the more I learn how little I actually know.
Nope, I am no the smartest guy and I know there are people that know more than me on a lot of things. One thing I have learned over the years, people that think what they know makes them someone else's "better than you", usually don't know anywhere near what they think they know. Because they spend too all their time trying to look better instead of getting better.
Done with you. You go be smarter than someone else.

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I as never a government employee, I was a security contractor. There are still huge government healthcare organizations out there running 35 year old technologies because the contractors that wrote them were the only ones that knew what made them tick. They are still running on Novell 5 and 6 platforms. There are still counties out there stuck in the Stone Age. As for calling you sparky, that was a response to your comments.
 

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There is no need to “be done with me” I’m bowing out of the conversation because it seems that everytime I open my mouth, I’ve got someone asking me to prove it. I’m done proving it. Ive spent more time in this thread backing up my comments than actual conversation. If you guys want to remain in denial about what’s going on, have at it.
 

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11,000 deaths, out of 350,000,000. And they say "everyone will know someone that has died from corona virus". I'm not a mathematician, but I think we're a long ways from 1 out of 100 people dying from corona, which I guess is what would need to happen for EVERYONE to know someone that dies from corona. These people are nuts.
 

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Jesus Saves
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I do not doubt that secondary transmission occurs but these articles do agree with me.

Abstract
Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a major healthcare-associated complication with considerable attributable morbidity, mortality and cost. Inherent design flaws in the standard high-volume low-pressure cuffed tracheal tubes form a major part of the pathogenic mechanism causing VAP. The formation of folds in the inflated cuff leads to microaspiration of pooled oropharyngeal secretions into the trachea, and biofilm formation on the inner surface of the tracheal tube helps to maintain bacterial colonization of the lower airways. Improved design of tracheal tubes with new cuff material and shape have reduced the size and number of these folds, which together with the addition of suction ports above the cuff to drain pooled subglottic secretions leads to reduced aspiration of oropharyngeal secretions. Furthermore, coating tracheal tubes with antibacterial agents reduces biofilm formation and the incidence of VAP. In this Viewpoint article we explore the published data supporting the new tracheal tubes and their potential contribution to VAP prevention strategies. We also propose that it may now be against good medical practice to continue to use a 'standard cuffed tube' given what is already known, and the weight of evidence supporting the use of newer tube designs.

Full article text: https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/cc10352

That article is also referenced here published in 2016:

https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/cc13775#ref-CR11

Pathogenesis

The complex interplay between the endotracheal tube, presence of risk factors, virulence of the invading bacteria and host immunity largely determine the development of VAP. The presence of an endotracheal tube is by far the most important risk factor, resulting in a violation of natural defense mechanisms (the cough reflex of glottis and larynx) against micro aspiration around the cuff of the tube [4], [11]. Infectious bacteria obtain direct access to the lower respiratory tract via: (1) micro aspiration, which can occur during intubation itself; (2) development of a biofilm laden with bacteria (typically Gram-negative bacteria and fungal species) within the endotracheal tube; (3) pooling and trickling of secretions around the cuff; and (4) impairment of mucociliary clearance of secretions with gravity dependence of mucus flow within the airways [1113]. Pathogenic material can also collect in surrounding anatomic structures, such as the stomach, sinuses, nasopharynx and oropharynx, with replacement of normal flora by more virulent strains [11], [12], [14]. This bacterium-enriched material is also constantly thrust forward by the positive pressure exerted by the ventilator. Whereas reintubation following extubation increases VAP rates, the use of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation has been associated with significantly lower VAP rates [4]. Host factors such as the severity of underlying disease, previous surgery and antibiotic exposure have all been implicated as risk factors for development of VAP [1].
I don't deny any of that. What I am saying is that VAP can be prevented with good care. Proper intubations, proper oral care, proper suctioning technique, proper positioning....yada, yada, yada. I have spent my career managing patients on the ventilators and understand the possibilities of VAP. I will say that majority of time, close to 100% of the time, VAP is a result of improper care from some one. Improper procedures, improper cuff pressures, careless encounters, rushed encounters, emergency encounters all result in an increased VAP. The upside is that with proper care and procedure, VAP can be minimized and also reach be elimintated. For many years we have been monitorng and documenting VAP AND Hospital Aquired Pneumonia and had months, many months with no VAP and such.

I am not disagreeing with your data; I just wish to explain how it can be prevented. I strongly suggest googling it yourself and you will understand where I am coming from. Google "prevening VAP".

Hospital aquired pneumonia (HAP) is similar. Proper care, proper hygeine and such can easily prevent infection.

Stick around, your insight is appreciated.
 

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Nobody here, or anywhere, is in denial. The virus is real. That isn't the problem.
Here is the problem. Are we getting YOUR truth based on fear? Or THE truth based on facts?
Watch the news. Even the experts, one they are competing to see who can convince the most people of THEIR truth, not THE truth. All the models for probable deaths use tested numbers. When the experts are saying that as much as 80% of positives will never know they have it. Tested numbers are only about 1/5th of those that will get it. That means the death toll will be far lower than predicted. Why?
They are not reporting raw numbers they have, or should have, to calm a panic but instead are FUELING a panic. Again, why?
And every day, there are those calling for more strict controls against our rights. WHY?
Personally, I am not liking the answers I can come up with.
And all you want to do is make excuses?
We want proof? Facts?
One of the best pieces of advice I ever got was this;
Be an asker of questions, a seeker of answers. When you are given an answer, question even that. No truth is absolute.
And yes, I question even myself?

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