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Aim true !
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Oh boy i hope i don't get it with my health problems. But one thing i don't get sick normally. So i think i have a good immune system. I hope at least.
 

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Only thing I disagree with (and with most folks spouting statistics) you cannot gauge deaths rate by total infected. You have to go by total number of cases with outcomes (recovered or died). The rest of those people are still sick and could go either direction, especially when such a high percentage are in serious or critical condition.
 

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Here is what I’m talking about. If we take the total number of people who have been infected and figure the death rate, we come out to 3.69%. But if we look at the statistics of both ongoing cases and closed cases, that number is no where near reality.

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Underdog, please stop listening to anyone who tells you this is like any other flu. 7% means 1 in 15 people infected will die. Think about that for a second before you brush it off.
 

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Grand Imperial Poobah
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Anyone know what the symptoms are of the Coronovirus? ................................ besides a craving for Mexican beer? :lol:
 

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I've got an idea. Let the young people loose, let them catch it. They will survive, and the will build an immunity to it. Then we go find one with our blood type, catch 'em and bleed 'em. We can inject their blood, and we'll build an immunity too! Find one now, so when they get better, you have a source.
 

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Aim true !
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I keep getting email from my banks about the virus. Guess their worried folks won't do banking?
 

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To everyone here, please watch this video in its entirety. It’s only 13 min long. Especially those who think this is being blown out of proportion. The letters from doctors and nurses in Italy will be read in this video. It will paint a picture of what is actually coming. Unless you are 101 years old, you’ve never seen anything like this.

https://www.facebook.com/TheBlaze/videos/208756083519583/?vh=e&d=n
 

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To everyone here, please watch this video in its entirety. It’s only 13 min long. Especially those who think this is being blown out of proportion. The letters from doctors and nurses in Italy will be read in this video. It will paint a picture of what is actually coming. Unless you are 101 years old, you’ve never seen anything like this.

https://www.facebook.com/TheBlaze/videos/208756083519583/?vh=e&d=n

Glen Beck is a fear monger. One day he said the stock market was over reacting. Next breath he says he sold his stock. I'm done with that guy.
 

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Glen Beck is a fear monger. One day he said the stock market was over reacting. Next breath he says he sold his stock. I'm done with that guy.
Im not concerned with his point of view, it’s the testimony of the doctors and nurses that is important.
 

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Im not concerned with his point of view, it’s the testimony of the doctors and nurses that is important.

I'm sure he waded through a ton of testimonies to find the worst of the worst. I'm sick of his doomsday prophecies. He's a prepper, so the nightmare scenario might just tickle his fancy. Spreading fear isn't going to stop what's coming, so STFU.
 

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Ancient Gaseous Emanation
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Discussion Starter #16
ANYTHING and EVERYTHING hyped by Glen Beck should be ignored out of hand. 'Fear monger' is too polite a term for him.
 

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Guys, let’s try this a different way. I built out a statistical model of China’s outbreak on 2/5. The numbers deaths and infections remained true all the way up to 2/13 when the WHO approved the clinical diagnosis for China to use. On 2/14, China stated that they would not report anyone who had not had genetic confirmation of the infection, at which point I stopped recording (they were no longer reporting cases clinically diagnosed). In that model, the infection rate was a steady 10x factor of spread over 14 days. That’s in strict quarantine conditions.

If I take the rate of spread in the United States since 3/3 (about 113 infections) and I plug the numbers into the same model, we have a 10x multiplier every 8 days (1,283 on 3/11, and currently at 2,294 just 2 days later.) In comparison, China at 10x/14 days, the US would be a staggering 100x/16 days without the measures being taken in the last couple of days (and more will be needed).

Maybe you can’t stand Glenn Beck, I’m not defending the man whatsoever. If we don’t take the necessary measures, it is a mathematical certainty it will be much worse here.
 

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Coal, Illinois Governor just announced school closures for 2 weeks. Kids go back on Monday to pickup google tablets for remote education. I’m not going to hold my breath that an untested remote education system is going to work on millions of kids out of the box. We will see.
 

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We closed out the evening with 3043 cases in the US which is on par for what I expected. It’ll take a while for those already infected to surface before the school closures and cancellation of public events start to slow down the momentum.

Italy is getting hit really hard by COVID-19. Much harder than anywhere else in the world. 16% (3407) of cases have an outcome with a death rate of 42%.

Because it has hit a couple assisted living facilities here in the US, there isn’t enough information to tell where we are. There are more deaths in the US than recovered. We just got notice that 4 people were admitted to a local hospital and tested positive. 2 were in an assisted living facility. The other 2 weren’t.

If you get anything from this post, don’t visit grandma or grandpa in the nursing home until things settle down.
 

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Jesus Saves
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16% (3407) of cases have an outcome with a death rate of 42%.
I am no mathematician. That said, that seems like fuzzy math to me. AM I thnking this right?

we have 1000 people with the virus
we have 160 people with outcomes (16%)
we have 67 people die within the outcomes (6.7% not 42%)


That would be 6.7% death rate (which can be much lower based on total numbers)

42% death ratee is what? And If I am correct with my math (I very well may not be), then this is "fuzzy" reporting to maniulate citizen response.

Italy:
135000 Reported cases
5000 reported deaths
3.6% death rate

Isn't that more factual? Still not good, but certainly not 42%! Even better than 6.7%.

Maybe someone can explain it better?
 
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